Preakness Picks
Courtesy of the guy they call "The Beav" on the street:
Well the Derby was quite a race, if you had a winning ticket. My topthree finished 3-4-6. I wanted and expected a fast pace, but wasn'tlooking for the 3'rd fastest opening fractions in Derby history.Spanish Chestnut led the field around with a suicidal pace and as aresult the horses came home in some of the slowest final two quartersever. Each final quarter was 26+ seconds; that's really slow. Horses near the lead finished even slower. Bellamy Road, the next superhorse, could barely keep straight as he slipped 5 positions in thefinal 150 yards.
Give Giacomo and Closing Argument credit for hanging in there down the stretch, but I think there will be a different set of horses in thetop two come this Saturday when the triple crown trail stops atPimlico. Again, there is quite a bit of front running speed in this race, but the jockey's surely learned something on Derby day. Scrappy T, HighLimit, Going Wild, and High Fly look to be the quickest out of thegate but none of these absolutely need to have the lead. Newcomer,Hal's Image will be close as well if he gets a clean break and lookfor Greeley's Galaxy to be much closer to the front in the beginning.If you are counting, that makes 6 horses that want to be up thereclose. This could definitely cause some traffic problems as they bunch around the far turn.
Sitting as stalkers, Afleet Alex, Closing Argument, Sun King and Wilkowill be chomping at the bit waiting for their Jockey's to say go. If any one of these four is blocked in traffic, their chances could beover very quickly. I believe, Afleet Alex has the fastest gear, butneeds to be clear on the final turn to display his magnificent turn of foot. Young jockey Jeremy Rose will be anxious to gun it first,hopefully we waits long enough. If you can't already tell, Alex is my top choice. I see him darting past the leaders at the top of the
Hopefully he has enough in the tank to continue to pull away. Theworst part about betting on Alex is that he will be 3-1 at the verymost, so Derby like paydays won't be repeated.In order to spice up the payday, we need to find the second placehorse. I haven't talked about Galloping Grocer, Malibu Moonshine,Noble Causeway, or Giacomo because I don't think any of these closerswill be presented a fast enough pace scenario to make a late impact.Being the Derby winner and finishing a strong fourth to what hasturned out to be a nice California crop in the SA Derby, I have to consider Giacomo the best of these, but still can't see him negotiating traffic and the tighter turns at Pimlico like he did onthe first Saturday in May. He'll have to go very wide, and by thetime he straightens out, the aforementioned stalkers will be too far ahead. The Preakness is a 1/16 of a mile shorter and the wire sneaksup about 70 yards sooner in the stretch.
Currently the 15th horse waiting for someone to drop is Golden Man. He fits into the stalker style and has been improving against weakercompany his last couple of races.Once the Post Positions are drawn on Wednesday, I'll send my top 3.Hopefully we'll cash a ticket this coming Saturday
Courtesy of the guy they call "The Beav" on the street:
Well the Derby was quite a race, if you had a winning ticket. My topthree finished 3-4-6. I wanted and expected a fast pace, but wasn'tlooking for the 3'rd fastest opening fractions in Derby history.Spanish Chestnut led the field around with a suicidal pace and as aresult the horses came home in some of the slowest final two quartersever. Each final quarter was 26+ seconds; that's really slow. Horses near the lead finished even slower. Bellamy Road, the next superhorse, could barely keep straight as he slipped 5 positions in thefinal 150 yards.
Give Giacomo and Closing Argument credit for hanging in there down the stretch, but I think there will be a different set of horses in thetop two come this Saturday when the triple crown trail stops atPimlico. Again, there is quite a bit of front running speed in this race, but the jockey's surely learned something on Derby day. Scrappy T, HighLimit, Going Wild, and High Fly look to be the quickest out of thegate but none of these absolutely need to have the lead. Newcomer,Hal's Image will be close as well if he gets a clean break and lookfor Greeley's Galaxy to be much closer to the front in the beginning.If you are counting, that makes 6 horses that want to be up thereclose. This could definitely cause some traffic problems as they bunch around the far turn.
Sitting as stalkers, Afleet Alex, Closing Argument, Sun King and Wilkowill be chomping at the bit waiting for their Jockey's to say go. If any one of these four is blocked in traffic, their chances could beover very quickly. I believe, Afleet Alex has the fastest gear, butneeds to be clear on the final turn to display his magnificent turn of foot. Young jockey Jeremy Rose will be anxious to gun it first,hopefully we waits long enough. If you can't already tell, Alex is my top choice. I see him darting past the leaders at the top of the
Hopefully he has enough in the tank to continue to pull away. Theworst part about betting on Alex is that he will be 3-1 at the verymost, so Derby like paydays won't be repeated.In order to spice up the payday, we need to find the second placehorse. I haven't talked about Galloping Grocer, Malibu Moonshine,Noble Causeway, or Giacomo because I don't think any of these closerswill be presented a fast enough pace scenario to make a late impact.Being the Derby winner and finishing a strong fourth to what hasturned out to be a nice California crop in the SA Derby, I have to consider Giacomo the best of these, but still can't see him negotiating traffic and the tighter turns at Pimlico like he did onthe first Saturday in May. He'll have to go very wide, and by thetime he straightens out, the aforementioned stalkers will be too far ahead. The Preakness is a 1/16 of a mile shorter and the wire sneaksup about 70 yards sooner in the stretch.
Currently the 15th horse waiting for someone to drop is Golden Man. He fits into the stalker style and has been improving against weakercompany his last couple of races.Once the Post Positions are drawn on Wednesday, I'll send my top 3.Hopefully we'll cash a ticket this coming Saturday
<< Home