Picks To Stick or Picks to Stink?
Alright, here goes my SECOND ATTEMPT at posting my electoral vote predictions for Tuesday. If I can't get Blogger to shit these out in a timely fashion, I'm giving up completely.
First of all, let's start with the givens.
The following states are pretty much certain to go Bush:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), Wyoming (3). This puts 208 EVs in the bank vault for Bush.
These states are squarely Kerry:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), The District (3), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), and Washington (1). We can stick a total of 171 in the bank for Kerry right next to Theresa's leftover ketchup money.
So now we move on to the tossups. My predictions on these states are not so much based on current polling as they are on poll trends in recent days, moving averages, historical moving averages, reports from the field from the media and personal sources, and good old fashioned gut instincts.
We'll move east to west for the swing states.
New Hampshire: Folks living in the Granite State pride themselves on being independent free thinkers. After all, this is a state where Pat Buchanan once offed Bush 41 in a primary. But surrounded by solid blue in New England, and with Curt Schilling canceling his appearances with Bush there this weekend, NH will end up going Kerry. NH to Kerry for 4.
New Jersey: The Garbage, er, Garden State's most famous living sons are on the trail for Kerry. But that doesn't change the fact that a good chunk of Jersey is made up of the working folks who make up the backbone of big business in Manhattan. Like it or not, they still remember September of 2001 and they like Bush's tough talk. Kerry led here for quite a while, but Bush has all the momentum now. NJ to Bush for 15.
Pennsylvania: Probably the toughest state of all to call. Gore won there in 2000 thanks to the big union vote in the western half, but me thinks the bluebloods in the Eastern half will be turning out heavy as well. This doesn't bode well for Bush, so PA goes Kerry for 21.
West Virginia: Historically Democratic, yes. But with a heavy reliance on big stinky coal as part of its economy and a lot of doctors running scared due to malpractice suits, WV goes to Bush for 5.
Ohio: The second-most crucial state for Bush in 2000, he really needs this one if he wants to pad his lead. Unfortunately for him, I don't think he's gonna get it. Watch out for the youth vote from the snotty liberal arts schools, and give OH to Kerry for 20.
Florida: Every election observer is going to be focused on the Sunshine State like a hawk. Every Bubba in the panhandle's gonna make darn tootin' sure they get out and vote for Bush. Florida to Bush for 27, and Ilk puts his ass on the line and says he wins it by at least 4 percent.
Michigan: Went hard for Gore in 2000, and yes, it has a big blighted urban area just crawling with Democrats. Outside of Detroit, there's plenty of tony suburbs and a lot of right-wing nut jobs in the interior of the state. Michigan goes Bush this time around for 17.
Wisconsin: How can a state whose largest city once elected a Socialst mayor and whose capital is often referred to as "Little Moscow" possibly be in play? That alone is a testament to the ass-busting the GOP has done up there. Yes, I saw plenty of Bush signs on I-94 a few weeks ago, but the problem is they were in the middle of nowhere. Wisconsin to Kerry for 10.
Minnesota: Ghost of Paul Wellstone comes back to haunt nice sensible Episcopalians like K's parents. 10 more to Kerry.
Iowa: Tom Harkin always fires up the farmers for the DEmocratic nominee and this year is going to be no exception. Iowa for 7 to Kerry.
Colorado: Cowboys square off against trustafarian brats from CSU and CU. My guess is the trustafarians stop playing with their hacky sacks and put down the bong long enough to vote. It's all about helpin' people, man. Colorado to Kerry for 9.
Hawaii: Bush has a tiny lead, but this is a state that went Gore by like 20% for years ago. Moral victory for Bush, but Kerry picks up 4 more eeevees.
So outta the swingers, Bush picks up 64 and Kerry gets 95. Final tally: Bush 271-266. Ummmm...sound familiar?
Alright, here goes my SECOND ATTEMPT at posting my electoral vote predictions for Tuesday. If I can't get Blogger to shit these out in a timely fashion, I'm giving up completely.
First of all, let's start with the givens.
The following states are pretty much certain to go Bush:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), Wyoming (3). This puts 208 EVs in the bank vault for Bush.
These states are squarely Kerry:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), The District (3), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), and Washington (1). We can stick a total of 171 in the bank for Kerry right next to Theresa's leftover ketchup money.
So now we move on to the tossups. My predictions on these states are not so much based on current polling as they are on poll trends in recent days, moving averages, historical moving averages, reports from the field from the media and personal sources, and good old fashioned gut instincts.
We'll move east to west for the swing states.
New Hampshire: Folks living in the Granite State pride themselves on being independent free thinkers. After all, this is a state where Pat Buchanan once offed Bush 41 in a primary. But surrounded by solid blue in New England, and with Curt Schilling canceling his appearances with Bush there this weekend, NH will end up going Kerry. NH to Kerry for 4.
New Jersey: The Garbage, er, Garden State's most famous living sons are on the trail for Kerry. But that doesn't change the fact that a good chunk of Jersey is made up of the working folks who make up the backbone of big business in Manhattan. Like it or not, they still remember September of 2001 and they like Bush's tough talk. Kerry led here for quite a while, but Bush has all the momentum now. NJ to Bush for 15.
Pennsylvania: Probably the toughest state of all to call. Gore won there in 2000 thanks to the big union vote in the western half, but me thinks the bluebloods in the Eastern half will be turning out heavy as well. This doesn't bode well for Bush, so PA goes Kerry for 21.
West Virginia: Historically Democratic, yes. But with a heavy reliance on big stinky coal as part of its economy and a lot of doctors running scared due to malpractice suits, WV goes to Bush for 5.
Ohio: The second-most crucial state for Bush in 2000, he really needs this one if he wants to pad his lead. Unfortunately for him, I don't think he's gonna get it. Watch out for the youth vote from the snotty liberal arts schools, and give OH to Kerry for 20.
Florida: Every election observer is going to be focused on the Sunshine State like a hawk. Every Bubba in the panhandle's gonna make darn tootin' sure they get out and vote for Bush. Florida to Bush for 27, and Ilk puts his ass on the line and says he wins it by at least 4 percent.
Michigan: Went hard for Gore in 2000, and yes, it has a big blighted urban area just crawling with Democrats. Outside of Detroit, there's plenty of tony suburbs and a lot of right-wing nut jobs in the interior of the state. Michigan goes Bush this time around for 17.
Wisconsin: How can a state whose largest city once elected a Socialst mayor and whose capital is often referred to as "Little Moscow" possibly be in play? That alone is a testament to the ass-busting the GOP has done up there. Yes, I saw plenty of Bush signs on I-94 a few weeks ago, but the problem is they were in the middle of nowhere. Wisconsin to Kerry for 10.
Minnesota: Ghost of Paul Wellstone comes back to haunt nice sensible Episcopalians like K's parents. 10 more to Kerry.
Iowa: Tom Harkin always fires up the farmers for the DEmocratic nominee and this year is going to be no exception. Iowa for 7 to Kerry.
Colorado: Cowboys square off against trustafarian brats from CSU and CU. My guess is the trustafarians stop playing with their hacky sacks and put down the bong long enough to vote. It's all about helpin' people, man. Colorado to Kerry for 9.
Hawaii: Bush has a tiny lead, but this is a state that went Gore by like 20% for years ago. Moral victory for Bush, but Kerry picks up 4 more eeevees.
So outta the swingers, Bush picks up 64 and Kerry gets 95. Final tally: Bush 271-266. Ummmm...sound familiar?
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